The following is an article written in the first-person voice taken entirely from a recent episode of “The Favorites” betting podcast.
Super Bowl 59 Pick, Prediction: Why This Eagles Fan and Pro Bettor is Taking the Chiefs
By Simon Hunter (via automation)
Let’s get this out of the way upfront: I’m a die-hard Eagles fan. But when it comes to betting Super Bowl 59—set for Sunday, February 9th, 2025, at 6:30 PM ET in the Caesars Superdome, New Orleans—I’m putting my money on Kansas City (-1.5 spread, -125 ML) over Philly. Here’s why, including insights from my buddy Chad (who’s still not invited to my future wedding after his Jalen Hurts slander this season).
Why I Can’t Bet Against Mahomes, Even as an Eagles Fan
Chad didn’t hesitate when the line dropped, as he gleefully shared on our recent podcast: “I bet this as soon as it opened at Kansas City -1.5. Kansas City on the moneyline at -120… You don’t want to bet against Patrick Mahomes.”
I hate to admit it, but he’s right. Mahomes is more than a quarterback—he’s a clutch algorithm disguised in pads. Remember that game-winning rushing touchdown against Buffalo? Even the Bills defenders said they’d never seen that play on tape. Know where the Chiefs stole it from? The Bills’ own playbook. That’s Mahomes and Andy Reid: they’ll dissect your strategy, repackage it, and shove it down your throat.
And let’s talk domes. Mahomes is now 15-0 in true dome games, including playoffs. In a climate-controlled Superdome? Perfect conditions for his surgical precision.
The Eagles’ Strengths (and Why They’re Not Enough)
Make no mistake: this Eagles roster is historically great. Healthier than their 2017 Super Bowl squad, with Jalen Hurts playing like a man possessed (121 touchdowns to 39 turnovers in his last three seasons). Their defense? Rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell allowed 4 catches for 21 yards and 2 INTs in the playoffs. Haason Reddick (yes, I’m giving him his flowers) is a DPOY candidate.
But here’s the problem: Vic Fangio’s defense is 0-8 against Mahomes. Chad nailed it: “Spags [Steve Spagnuolo] makes the right blitz call when he needs to… Mahomes and Reid are always one step ahead.”
Even the Eagles’ trench dominance feels shaky. Sure, their O-line could bully Kansas City’s front, but do I trust Andy Reid to gameplan over Nick Sirianni and Kellen Moore? Do I trust Spagnuolo over Fangio? Yes.
The Chad vs. Simon Debate: Stats vs. Storylines
Chad’s been brutal on Hurts all year (hence the wedding disinvite), but even I’ll admit the stats are eye-opening. Compare Hurts and Mahomes over the past three seasons:
| Stat | Mahomes | Hurts |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 48-10 | 42-12 |
| Total TDs | 117 | 121 |
| Turnovers | 43 | 39 |
| Passer Rating | 98.5 | 97.5 |
“One’s viewed as the GOAT; the other isn’t top 10 to Chad,” I joked. But here’s the truth: Mahomes’ intangibles tilt this. As I told Chad: “If the Eagles are up a TD in the 4th, Mahomes will still find a way. Let him live, and he’ll kill you.”
The Bet: Chiefs Moneyline or Spread?
Chad’s playing it safe: “No dishonor in taking the moneyline.” But I’m rolling with Chiefs -1.5. Why? Super Bowl history: only one game ever landed within a 3-point margin. With Mahomes’ 16-2 record in games of less than 3-point spreads? I’ll risk the hook.
Final Word
This Eagles team is special. Hurts is a warrior, and their roster is stacked. But betting isn’t about heart—it’s about cold, calculated edges. And in the Caesars Superdome, under those lights, with Reid and Mahomes scripting magic?
As Chad put it: “It’s Mahomes, Reid, and Spags. They always find a way.”
My Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (or moneyline -125 for cautious players).
Questions? Thoughts? Comments? Find me on LinkedIn, and let’s chat!
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